Madison, 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

821
FXUS64 KJAN 101132 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
632 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous levels (limited to elevated) of heat today & Saturday.

- "Marginal Risk" (Level 1 of 5) of isolated severe storms for
  portions of the area both Saturday & Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Today through next Thursday...As troughing exits the region, sub-
tropical ridging will build into the forecast area today.  This`ll
result in less rain chances across the forecast area, with only a
stray shower or storm possible across far southern portions of the
CWA this afternoon.  However, hot humid conditions will persist as
highs climb into the middle 90s.  This, with dew points in the 70s,
will continue to yield afternoon heat index values above the century
mark across much of the area, with values reaching to near 108F
possible across the northwest Delta region. As a result, I`ve issued
a "Heat Advisory" there from 11 AM until 8 PM today.  If indices
look to climb higher than what`s currently being advertised
elsewhere, i.e. if they climb above 105F, this advisory could be
expanded.

Over the upcoming weekend, the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge
will weaken and slide further west of the forecast area.  This will
yet again allow troughing/low pressure aloft to become the primary
weather feature across/near the CWA through much of the remainder of
the forecast period. Beginning Saturday, rain chances will begin
increasing across the forecast area, with very good chances
continuing each day through at least the middle of next week.

In addition, with a bit more northwest flow aloft setting up across
the region during the weekend, attention will need to be paid
upstream for any complex of storms that could potentially affect the
CWA.  The first of such could come late Saturday as a complex is
currently progged to drop southeast and potentially into far
northern portions of the area. As a result, a "Marginal Risk" for
isolated severe storms now resides in the vicinity of the Highway 82
corridor for late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary concern with such storms.

As a frontal boundary tries to settle into the region late Sunday
into early week, we`ll again maintain good chances for showers and
storms across the area.  South of this boundary, a very moist and
unstable airmass will continue to reside across the CWA.  Another
"Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms capable of producing
damaging wind gusts will again exist across much of the CWA on
Sunday as a result.

Although this boundary will eventually washout, due to the overall
troughing/low pressure pattern over/near the region, combined with
the continued humid and unstable airmass, these rain chances will
persist into at least Wednesday.  Of course with these better rain
chances, some relief from the ongoing heat stress will exist Sunday
through at least next Wednesday.  Finally come Thursday, ridging
aloft reasserting itself over the region from the east is progged to
lessen said rain chances late next week. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR flight conditions with southwest winds between 10-15 kts will
prevail through the period. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       95  75  95  75 /   0  10  30  30
Meridian      94  75  95  74 /  10   0  40  30
Vicksburg     94  77  94  76 /   0   0  20  30
Hattiesburg   95  76  95  75 /  20  10  40  20
Natchez       95  75  95  75 /  10   0  30  10
Greenville    94  77  95  76 /   0   0  30  50
Greenwood     95  76  95  75 /   0   0  40  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025-034-035.

LA...None.
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ075.

&&

$$

19/SW